Big Trends Require Big Thinking
In the news last week was the forecast that 2019 global automotive sales will be down by as much as 4 million. It amounts to a crisis for the industry and articles blame Brexit, the US-China trade war and an array of other factors. We think it’s something else.
10 years ago in 2009, we undertook a major research and scenario planning exercise for a global supplier to the European car market. The idea was to look ahead to 2019 and paint a picture of how it might unfold. We painted three and one of them looks in retrospect pretty accurate. We saw the need for a major realignment between demand and supply with concerning consequences for established automotive players if they didn’t grasp some big issues but we observed an industry with a lot to lose and accustomed to an established model, essentially tinkering at the margins. An industry constrained in its strategic actions by shareholder demands for short-term returns and struggling to afford the very significant investment and bold actions required to get fit for the future (now).
At the time we identified 3 big trends which foretold the need for major change:
An indication that consumers were open to move from ownership to ‘access’
Changes in the drivers of social status potentially making eco choices more compelling than traditional symbols of status
The emergence of economic and social microclimates requiring locally attuned strategies rather than the more convenient global ‘one size fits all’ approach.
The trends apply equally but in different ways. Today a number of big trends are demanding BIG strategic responses.
Are you forward thinking?